The Consequences of Climate Change and Global Warming

What are the likely consequences of global warming (Miller and Spoolman, 2016):

     1. More ice and snow are likely to melt. Most computer models project that climate change will be most severe in the world’s polar regions. This is important for several reasons including that the light-colored ice and snow help to cool the entire planet by reflecting incoming solar energy back into space. The melting of this snow and ice exposes much darker land and sea areas, which absorb more solar energy. This has led to warmth increasing most rapidly at the poles. This warming will accelerate the rapid melting of even more snow and ice in an escalating spiral of change.

Warmer temperatures are already reducing the amount of ice at the North and South Poles and throughout the Arctic and Antarctic regions. This melting ice adds fresh water to the oceans, raising the sea level relative to land. Even a slight increase in sea level can lead to some lands becoming submerged and to saltwater intrusion to freshwater rivers and wells (Spooner, 2012).

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     2. Permafrost is likely to melt. Permafrost is found in soils beneath about 25 per cent of the exposed land in Alaska, Canada, and Siberia. Huge amounts of carbon are locked up in permafrost soils. Human-caused climate change is expected to thaw out significant amounts of permafrost (as is already occurring in parts of Alaska and Siberia). This will lead to the rotting of a vast amount of organic material and release huge amounts of methane and carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. That too would create a mutually reinforcing cycle as those greenhouse gases will accelerate atmospheric warming.

     3. Ocean levels will rise. The two major causes of global sea level rise are thermal expansion caused by warming of the ocean (since water expands as it warms) and increased melting of land-based ice, such as glaciers and ice sheets. The oceans are absorbing more than 90 percent of the increased atmospheric heat associated with emissions from human activity (National Ocean Service, 2017).  

During the 1900s, the world’s average sea level rose by 7.6 inches – much from the increasing runoff from melting land-based ice. Between 2015 and 2100, it is projected that there will be another increase of 16 to 24 inches. Half to two-thirds of this rise will likely come from the melting of Greenland’s ice. However, if the rate of melting increases, it is conceivable that sea levels could rise by 3 to 7 feet by 2100. Just a three-foot rise would submerge several low-lying countries (such as Bangladesh and Fiji), completely flood over some of the world’s largest coastal cities (such as Venice, London, and New Orleans), and create massive flooding and erosion of barrier islands and coastlines in Florida, Texas, Louisiana, New Jersey, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Say good-bye to Brunswick County. Coastal fisheries would be damaged, and freshwater aquifers that provide drinking water would be contaminated with salt water.

In the United States, almost 40 percent of the population lives in relatively high-population-density coastal areas, where sea level plays a role in flooding, shoreline erosion, and hazards from storms. Globally, eight of the world's 10 largest cities are near a coast (National Ocean Service, 2017).  

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     Read local expert, Dr. Richard Hilderman, on the danger of rising sea level:

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4. Severe drought and other extreme weather will become more common. Warming increases the kinetic energy in the atmosphere. This will lead to longer, more frequent, and more intense heat waves which would lead to more heat-related deaths, reduce crop production, and expand deserts. Because a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, some areas such as the eastern coast of the United States will likely experience more flooding from heavy rainfalls. A World Meteorological Organization panel has forecast stronger hurricanes and typhoons. Forest fires will become more frequent and more intense. Several populations of insects that damage trees will flourish. Coastal wetlands (like in Brunswick County) are especially vulnerable. Should precipitation move further away from already dry areas, these regions may not be able to grow food or have adequate freshwater. The number of natural disasters has more than tripled since 1970 – 90 percent of them are weather related (Environmental Defense Fund, 2017c).

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   5. Biodiversity will be threatened. Biodiversity on every continent will be harmed. For example, the Amazon rain forest – one of the world’s major sources of biodiversity – could be lost and converted to tropical savanna. The biomes that organisms are best adapted to are likely to shift in location or disappear altogether. Many species will have to quickly adapt to avoid extinction. As the atmosphere warms, 25 to 50 per cent of the world’s species could face extinction by 2100.

Global warming is contributing to rising ocean temperatures. Combined with the effects of acid rain, the ocean is becoming a less hospitable environment for many organisms. For example, coral and shellfish are already suffering. Coral reefs are highly sensitive to small changes in ocean temperatures. The heat stresses the algae that nourish the corals and provide their vibrant colors. The algae then leave, and the corals eventually starve – an event known as bleaching. As coral reefs are home to many other species, such as fish, their collapse would disrupt the entire ecosystem. Also, a more acidic ocean affects the normal calcium balance, meaning creatures with calcified shells, such as shellfish and coral may not have enough calcium to grow (Environmental Defense Fund, 2017b).

     6. Food production could decline. If the atmosphere keeps warming as projected, farmers will experience significant problems. Climate change models project a decline in agricultural productivity in currently warm climates (as they get hotter), although some currently colder areas might become more productive (as they get warmer). The flooding of farm lands could become an increasing problem.

     7. Human health, national security, and world economies will be threatened. Prolonged heat waves will likely increase illnesses and death – especially among older people, people in poor health, and people who cannot afford air conditioning. A warmer, more carbon dioxide-intense atmosphere will be conducive to insects, including mosquitos and ticks, which transmit severe illnesses such as West Nile virus and Lyme disease. Warming will also favor microbes, toxic molds, fungi, pests, and weeds. Smog will increase leading to more heart and respiratory disease. Recent reports from the U.S. Department of Defense and the National Academy of Sciences warn that climate change could lead to geopolitical conflicts centered on water shortage, food scarcity, environmental degradation, and mass migration of environmental refugees. Also, climate change could lead to reduced economic productivity, disruption of supply chains, higher costs for food and other commodities, and higher levels of risk for companies and investors.